Category Archives: Climate change information

Communicating Change From Llanfyllin to Kamuli

It is great to see the message of our collective need for social and cultural change in the face of climate change reaching all the way from Llanfyllin in Wales to Kamuli in Uganda.

#oneschooloneplanet

In Llanfyllin with participants at the 2017 Chester and Reading PDCs, publically launching our “Big Change is Coming” leaflet.

Students on the 2017 Kamuli PDC with our “Big Change is Coming” leaflet.

 

 

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“Big Change is Coming” – New Leaflet Launched!

On Saturday afternoon, April 22nd 2017, members of the Llanfyllin Transition Project team and recent Sector39 permaculture graduates from Chester and Reading launched a new leaflet in Llanfyllin in celebration of Earth Day and in solidarity with the global march for climate science.

The leaflet gives some basic information about the Paris Climate Agreement, which we feel is a great incentive for local communities to come together to plan their own futures.

If you would like to distribute some leaflets yourself, a PDF version is available from the link below. Please feel free to share widely:

Earth Day 2017 Paris Accord Leaflet

In other news, we were extremely pleased to see that the Advertizer (April 18th 2017, p. 18), featured a short write-up about our work with photography students at Llanfyllin High School. We are really looking forward to seeing the images that the students produce to communicate the need for a cultural shift towards ecocentrism if we are going to meet the challenge of climate change!

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From Paris to Llanfyllin

The Paris Accord is our chance, we must take it. When Trump announced that he wanted the U.S. to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement this month even the US coal industry advised him against it. ‘We need to be at the table, not out in the cold’ they told him. 195 countries signed the ground breaking global treaty in December 2015 and to date 142 countries have ratified it. It must be the single most important piece paper ever signed.

So what does it say? At the Llanfyllin Transition project we have been stopping people in the street and asking them what the Paris Agreement means to them. It is revealing that very few have heard of it enough to know exactly what it says or what the huge ramifications are as we begin to implement it.

The core ideas are this: every region, city, state and nation needs to work on its own carbon reduction plan. We have until 2020 to develop these ideas and be ready to implement them.

paris targets

This is the path laid out by the Paris Agreement

Between 2020 and 2030 we are required to halve our CO2 emissions.

Then we need to do exactly that again the following decade and then again. By 2050 our emissions need to be close to zero and not only that but farming, one of the most significant sources of green house gasses needs to move from being a big emitter to a net carbon sink. Yes, we have to transform agriculture into a carbon sequestering process, one that also protects biodiversity and feeds a rising population. It is a huge challenge and one that will over-ride all our other concerns or objectives as the seriousness of the encroaching climate crisis bights ever deeper.

Will this save us? Science gives us a 66% chance of avoiding run-away climate change if we achieve these targets. That is like playing Russian Roulette with 2 rounds in your 6 shooter, it is still far from safe. Every day we delay facing up to this challenge is a day wasted and a day our children and grandchildren will live to regret.

Before you all get too gloomy I have to say I think this is a fantastic opportunity.

Achieving our Paris commitments has the potential to rejuvenate our economy, creating numerous opportunities for the next generations in a way that will revitalise our communities at the same time. Facing up to this requires a complete transformation of food, energy, farming, transport, housing and economy. The era of economic growth at all costs and throw-away consumerism is already over. The evidence is all around us, solving climate and biodiversity challenges will require new economic models and new thinking creating a whole raft of opportunities.

Greening local Politics

With the encouragement of colleagues and I friends I have put my name forward as a Green Party candidate in the local elections on May 4th, not least because I believe we need to register our recognition of the new directions required. My work with the Llanfyllin Transition Project and in permaculture education means that on a daily bases I am immersed in the reality of the challenges we face as well as the many responses and strategies at our fingertips to set us in a new direction. I am convinced this is a change we can embrace and benefit from. We are gong to have to!

Join us, we are organising on-going events and publishing regular articles on our website and blog.

Steven Jones
steve@dragons.cymru
www.llanfyllin.sector39.co.uk

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Image attached: Paris targets graph

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‘It is not an investment if it is destroying the planet’

Yet here in Wales we are still proposing new roads that destroy increasingly rare habitat.

The M4 relief road key points:

The Welsh Government wants to build a £1.1bn six-lane motorway to the south of Newport.

The 14.23m (23km) highway will be between the current M4 junction 23A at Magor to junction 29 near Castleton.

The Welsh Government plans to begin construction in 2018 and open the new road in 2021.

The Welsh Government said the current M4 around Newport, opened in 1967, “does not meet modern motorway design standards”.

Environmental campaigners and local residents claim the scheme will devastate the ancient marshlands of the Gwent Levels and four sites of special scientific interest.

There have been 335 formal objections, compared to 192 letters of support.

A public local inquiry is expected to last five months.

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What is Systems Thinking?

The following is a little snippet of something I am working on for the Llanfyllin Transition Project Handbook:

When we think about our position in the world, especially in Western societies, we tend to think of ourselves as somehow separate and distinct from nature. We live our lives in a human-made bubble. This idea is most clearly expressed in our culture’s binary distinction between nature and culture, between the wild and the domesticated. This perceived divide between ‘us’ and the rest of the natural world has had an enormously destructive impact on our planet. Our assumed dominance over nature has led us to plunder the Earth’s natural resources, to destroy vast swathes of wilderness, and to decimate whole populations of plant and animal species – all because of our own self-imposed distance from the natural world, and our self-elected dominance over it.

All of this can be understood as resulting from a form of reductionism – the notion that we can better understand and control the world by breaking it down into individual component parts. For example, forests become ‘trees,’ which then become ‘wood,’ which we can use for our own purposes. When we enter into a reductionist mode of approaching nature we ignore fundamental connections between these component parts. By breaking nature up into commodities, we destroy a complex whole. In our desire for oil (as a component-commodity of the natural world), for example, we have tended to ignore the negative impacts of extraction processes on other components of the natural world. Think, for instance, of the destruction of precious habitats for the extraction of oil from tar sands in Canada, where focussing on just one part of the whole (oil) has led to the collapse of other interrelated parts (woodland habitats, animal species, plant species, and so on).

We can express this situation in a simple formula:

Nature/Culture Divide + Reductionism = Ecocide.

Systems thinking is one method by which we might be able to overcome our culture’s dominant destructive attitude to the natural world. Although there were precursors to systems thinking throughout human intellectual history, we can trace its current popular formulation to the writings of the physicist Fritjof Capra, perhaps most famous for his synthesis of quantum mechanics and mysticism in the book The Tao of Physics (1975). Drawing on his background in quantum mechanics and theoretical physics, Capra came to the conclusion that reductionism fails as a mode of interpreting the natural world, which, contrary to the old Newtonian view of physics, does not consist of mutually distinct ‘objects’ (e.g. atoms as simple balls of matter), but actually is much more accurately described in terms of systems of relationships, processes and networks of interrelated, and interdependent, parts.

“The new vision of reality we have been talking about is based on an awareness of the essential interrelatedness and interdependence of all phenomena – physical, biological, psychological, social and cultural. It transcends current disciplinary boundaries and will be pursued within new institutions” (Capra, 1985, p 285).

Key to this new vision of reality is the system, very simply defined as set of things working together as parts of a complex whole. The idea of systems derives from observation of the natural world, and indeed from ourselves – human beings are complex systems too!

“Living systems are organised in such a way that they form multi-leveled structures, each level consisting of subsystems which are wholes in regard to their parts, and parts with respect to the larger wholes. Thus molecules combine to form cells. The cells form tissues and organs, which themselves form larger systems” (Capra, 1985, p 27).

Perhaps the clearest example of the kind of system Capra is talking about is the ecosystem. Broadly defined, an ecosystem is a community of interacting organisms (plants, animals, etc.), in conjunction with the nonliving components of their environment (air, water, soil, minerals, etc.), interacting as a system.


If one element of the system is damaged, removed or destroyed, all of the other component parts will fail too. This is precisely what has led to the current crisis facing our global ecosystem today. The underlying philosophy of the industrial revolution was one of mechanism, reductionism and human dominance over nature. Natural resources were seen as independent commodities, the extraction of which had no consequences for the rest of the environment, so we had no qualms with mining coal, chopping down ancient woodlands and replacing them with factories and refineries.

Similarly, human beings were viewed as separate from the environment, above it almost, so that the pollutive byproducts of our industrial activities were somehow thought to have no direct impact on surrounding plants, animals, or even other human beings. This we now know to be entirely false, and yet incredibly we continue to perpetuate an outmoded worldview – as though we are separate from our ecosystems and our actions have no consequences. The adoption of a systems view and a re-awakening of our intimate inter-connection with the natural world, might assist us in realising the error of our ways and point us in new directions for change.

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Your roadmap to a 66% chance of survival

Climate change and run away green house emissions are here, exactly as predicted. What next?

It is actually not hard to understand the basic premise of climate change, you burn stuff made out of carbon and the amount of carbon in the air increases in direct proportion.

Carbon in the air combines with oxygen forming CO2, this acts like a blanket and traps more of the sun’s thermal radiation in the atmosphere, hence global warming. This warming effect energizes climate systems which in turn changes the weather, ie climate change.

The earth’s bio-systems are actually pretty resilient and able to tolerate a lot of stress whilst remaining relatively stable. This self-regulating effect, much as how our bodies regulate temperature, only works within a narrow tolerance range, when we step outside of the warm/ safe zone, things get really unstable quickly and outcomes become impossible to predict.

Scientists are certain about all of this, the only uncertainty is just how bad and how dangerous is the situation exactly and what will it be like this time next year? We will only know these answers with hindsight. The key point is: Science is certain about what is happening and when confronted with the amassed evidence governments are forced to agree with it, hence the Paris Accord.

The escape route it short and sharp,
We will have to crash-land the carbon economy over the next three decades and think up some other way of doing things pretty quickly. This is none negotiable, in terms of the science and in terms of our economy,

paris targets

This is the path laid out by the Paris Agreement

which also has to change rapidly to reflect our sudden shift in priorities.

 

GDC Gross-De-Carbonisation

We wont be able to sustain the same kind of GDP growth we became accustomed in the last century in this one. GDC will drive the future economy. Gross de-carbonisation. The future economy will reward innovators not in the through-put of energy and materials (GDP) but in fnding economically efficient ways of carbon sequestration and substitution.

Trump can trumpet for coal all he likes but he is rolling stones uphill and gravity will always win out in the end.

The final thing to know about Climate chang and the Paris Accord is that when confronted with all the evidence and with no way to escape the reality, 195 governments around the world agreed to sign it.. but they only agreed to committing to 50% of the measures required to avoid climate catastrophe, (in effect 4 degrees of change when the agreed target is 1.5 with an absolute ceiling of 2). Politics in its bigger sense has therefore failed us.

Democracy and economics

Governments therefore are not the leaders, they will have to follow.

Permaculture is a global phenomenon as people around the world realise the future is working with local and natural resources.

It is down to community, individual action and our collective political and economic impact to shape and form the future. Together we must find a way to forge the road to a carbon neutral 2050.

Only permaculture, regenerative agriculture, ecological and cyclical design processes can get us to where we need to go. These approaches are generally bottom up, niche market led and decentralised approaches but they are popping everywhere. It is if a mycelium of ideas has permeated the very substrate of our society and as it all starts to unravel around us a whole new set of options and approaches are popping up like mushrooms on a damp autumn morning.
Next Transition Event

We are celebrating Earth Day in Llanfyllin Town Square

narch for science

Global actions are planned in support of the scientific community

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Llanfyllin Transition Event. WWF UK’s Living Planet Lecture 2016


Sir David Attenborough & Professor Johan Rockstrom speak at WWF UK’s Living Planet Lecture 2016.

If you have not seen it yet, this is a brilliant lecture. Information dense but brilliantly presented, Prof Rockstrom presents a torrent of evidence, yet sticks to key memorable points helping you navigate through the detail. We still have time to act meaningfully but that window is rapidly closing he warns. The final chapter of his presentation is challengingly positive, as he talks about the exponential nature of change and the global responses to this huge problem. A journey of 35 footsteps takes me to the exit of this theatre he tells us, but a journey of 35 exponential footsteps takes me to Mars!

paris targets

This is the path laid out by the Paris Agreement, that gives us a 66% chance of avoiding run away climate change

We staged this talk in a build up to Earth Day next month and as part of the Llanfyllin Transition Project launch. We have the specific aim of facilitating a positive dialogue about how we as a community can channel these tectonic shifts coming our way towards positive outcomes and new opportunities for our community. The climate/ energy story is reshaping our economy as well as the geography of the planet and by steering the economy in the right direction we can also begin to formulate much more meaningful responses to this challenge.

We are experiencing the ecological problem of climate change as an economic problem, caused by a failure to see the whole picture. GDP growth at all costs is a limited and unimaginative way to see the world.

There can no longer be such a thing as an economic externality, argues Prof Rockstrom.

Hiding the true economic cost of production by externalising those costs onto either society or the environment is no longer an option as we have saturated both to the point of implosion. Solving this will involve learning how to think differently, to think bigger and much more long-term. It is going to an incredible journey and we invite you to join us…

40+ people attended the one hour screening and 30 minute discussion at the Llanfyllin High School

We also launched the first edition of the Llanfyllin transition Handbook at the event, we had printed 10 early editions for sale, all of which sold on the night.

Launch of the Llanfyllin Transition handbook

Here is some feedback from one of attendee’s

Morning Steve, just wanted to say thank you for last night, I really enjoyed the talk and would be lovely to get a copy of the book if you decide to get more printed. Wondered if it would be a good idea to arrange a more relaxed way of talking following the next event. I could see that people wanted to talk and perhaps an informal talk around tables with a cuppa would work well? So many lovely people with ideas to share. Anyway its just a wee thought. Sending lots of happy wishes your way!

We are already planning the follow-up event and will be listening to this and other feedback to create a space where we can have more discussion and debate and can pick up on some of the many issues raised by the film and the climate Change agenda.

Read this:

This Vox article sets our decade by decade the challenges before us. This is what we should be aiming to give our selves a chance of avoiding run away climate change.

I invite people to use this as a basis for continuing discussions.
Vox: The simple yet daunting roadmap for staying under 2 degrees

Scientists made a detailed “roadmap” for meeting the Paris climate goals. It’s eye-opening.

 

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Llanfyllin Transition Project Handbook – Preview Copies

We have a limited number of preview copies of our Llanfyllin Transition Project Handbook available for just £3 each. Come along to our climate change event at Llanfyllin High School, this Thursday at 7pm to get one! The aim of the handbook is to inspire positive community change, no matter how small or how large, to help tackle the challenge of Climate Change using ideas from permaculture, the transition movement and deep ecology.

“It is exciting to discover a Welsh community that has already done so much to pioneer these practical solutions using permaculture design and the power of the Transition Movement: influencing school curriculum, creating local community orchards and gardens, establishing a housing co-op and associated enterprises, storytelling, offering cutting edge training to spread this knowledge far and wide, and grounding all of this with an understanding of our deep interconnection with all species as humans alive at this critical time in our history. Reaching out, Llanfyllin Transition Project have gathered stories about their approach and shared it in this book. Prepare to be inspired.”

– Maddy Harland, editor of Permaculture Magazine and a co-founder of Permanent Publications.

“The Llanfyllin Transition Project (which embodies both pragmatic daily wisdom, and myth inspired storytelling), is a vitally important means to invite our participation toward eliminating the variety of eco-crises threatening all life on planet Earth. I encourage all of us to support this project and read this book.”

 – Mark A. Schroll, PhD,author of Transpersonal Ecosophy, Vol. 1: Theory, Methods, and Clinical Assessments.

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March 23rd: Climate science, community action #Llanfyllin

  • Just how bad is it?
  • How long do we have?
  • Is it too late for action?
  • Action on climate starts locally and sends a message of intent to the whole world.
  • Are you ready?

earth-day-poster-1-single

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Standing for science and reason

manrique-quote

Cesar Manrique speaks out for the environment in 1987

This piece is from the latest Tanat Valley Chronicle

The publication is produced locally and is widely read, the best tool for reaching the local population. How has it come to this? It seems incredible that in 2017 we ap11-steve-jones-mar-2017-1re failing to grasp the messages coming from the scientific community and confusing their painstaking and peer reviewed research with corporate sponsored advertorial trying to deny to us what is plainly obvious. We ma prefer to hear the comforting lies coming from the corporate media but our own personal experiences tell us something different is happening. It seems essential that we all get a strong grasp of the research, of the established fast away from the filters and reality bending secondary suppliers of information.

The Llanfyllin event aims to build towards the World Earth Day when scientists across the world will be sending a unified and clear message that we ignore these findings at tremendous and horrific risk to all.